Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 0 - Thiago Agustin Tirante 0. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favored with a 56.6% win probability.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1634
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaThiago Agustin Tirante
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.9% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads by 130 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
58.8%
Below tour avg
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SPW
60.8%
Below tour avg
● Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a slight serve edge (+2.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
-120
Model: 43%
Edge: -11.2%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML
+107
Model: 57%
Edge: +8.3%
Model Projection
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ML +107 · +8.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina holds a commanding 130-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →