Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Flavio Cobolli prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Flavio Cobolli 0 - Thiago Agustin Tirante 0. Flavio Cobolli is favored with a 57.5% win probability.
Flavio Cobolli
1666
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Flavio CobolliThiago Agustin Tirante
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,098 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli leads by 162 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
Flavio Cobolli SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
● Flavio Cobolli has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
+202
Model: 42%
Edge: +9.4%
Flavio Cobolli ML
-225
Model: 58%
Edge: -11.7%
Model Projection
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML +202 · +9.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Flavio Cobolli holds a commanding 162-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Flavio Cobolli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Flavio Cobolli 57.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →