Timofey Skatov vs Elias Ymer prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Elias Ymer 0 - Timofey Skatov 0. Timofey Skatov is favored with a 52.9% win probability.
Elias Ymer
1486
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Timofey Skatov
1444
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Elias YmerTimofey Skatov
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Timofey Skatov
Elias Ymer
Elias Ymer leads by 42 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Timofey Skatov SPW
64.8%
Above tour avg
Elias Ymer SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
● Timofey Skatov has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Timofey Skatov ML
+130
Model: 53%
Edge: +9.5%
Elias Ymer ML
-152
Model: 47%
Edge: -13.3%
Model Projection
Timofey Skatov ML +130 · +9.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Elias Ymer has a moderate 42-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Timofey Skatov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Timofey Skatov 52.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →