Toby Samuel vs Jakub Mensik prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jakub Mensik 0 - Toby Samuel 0. Jakub Mensik is favored with a 60.0% win probability.
Jakub Mensik
1632
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Toby Samuel
1671
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Jakub MensikToby Samuel
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Toby Samuel
Jakub Mensik
Toby Samuel leads by 39 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Toby Samuel SPW
66.6%
Above tour avg
Jakub Mensik SPW
69.0%
Above tour avg
● Jakub Mensik has a slight serve edge (+2.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Toby Samuel ML
+204
Model: 40%
Edge: +7.1%
Jakub Mensik ML
-233
Model: 60%
Edge: -9.9%
Model Projection
Toby Samuel ML +204 · +7.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (39-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Jakub Mensik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jakub Mensik 60.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →