Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 - Toby Samuel 0. Thiago Agustin Tirante is favored with a 50.8% win probability.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Toby Samuel
1500
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Thiago Agustin TiranteToby Samuel
Grass
Surface
Lexus Eastbourne Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Lexus Eastbourne Open
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Toby Samuel
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads by 4 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Toby Samuel SPW
59.9%
Above tour avg
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
60.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (4-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thiago Agustin Tirante 50.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →