Tomas Barrios Vera vs Harold Mayot prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Harold Mayot 0 - Tomas Barrios Vera 0. Harold Mayot is favored with a 51.0% win probability.
Harold Mayot
1438
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Tomas Barrios Vera
1397
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Harold MayotTomas Barrios Vera
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Tomas Barrios Vera
Harold Mayot
Harold Mayot leads by 41 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Tomas Barrios Vera SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
Harold Mayot SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Harold Mayot has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Tomas Barrios Vera ML
-388
Model: 49%
Edge: -30.6%
Harold Mayot ML
+311
Model: 51%
Edge: +26.7%
Model Projection
Harold Mayot ML +311 · +26.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Harold Mayot has a moderate 41-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Harold Mayot has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Harold Mayot 51.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →