Tristan Boyer vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0 - Tristan Boyer 0. Tristan Boyer is favored with a 55.7% win probability.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1482
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Tristan Boyer
1485
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Llamas RuizTristan Boyer
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Tristan Boyer
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Tristan Boyer leads by 3 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Tristan Boyer SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
64.2%
Above tour avg
● Tristan Boyer has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Tristan Boyer has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Tristan Boyer 55.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →