Tristan Schoolkate vs Daniel Evans prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Daniel Evans 0 - Tristan Schoolkate 0. Daniel Evans is favored with a 52.1% win probability.
Daniel Evans
1570
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Tristan Schoolkate
1464
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Daniel EvansTristan Schoolkate
Grass
Surface
ATP Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (6,309 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Tristan Schoolkate
Daniel Evans
Daniel Evans leads by 106 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Tristan Schoolkate SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
Daniel Evans SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Tristan Schoolkate ML
-179
Model: 48%
Edge: -16.3%
Daniel Evans ML
+149
Model: 52%
Edge: +12.0%
Model Projection
Daniel Evans ML +149 · +12.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Daniel Evans holds a commanding 106-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Daniel Evans has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Daniel Evans 52.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →