Tyra Caterina Grant vs Katie Boulter prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Katie Boulter 0 - Tyra Caterina Grant 0. Katie Boulter is favored with a 58.6% win probability.
Katie Boulter
1652
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • WTA
Tyra Caterina Grant
1518
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Katie BoulterTyra Caterina Grant
Grass
Surface
WTA Wimbledon
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (6,507 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Wimbledon
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Tyra Caterina Grant
Katie Boulter
Katie Boulter leads by 134 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Grass: 56.5%
Tyra Caterina Grant SPW
57.6%
Above tour avg
Katie Boulter SPW
58.7%
Above tour avg
● Katie Boulter has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Tyra Caterina Grant ML
+224
Model: 41%
Edge: +10.5%
Katie Boulter ML
-271
Model: 59%
Edge: -14.4%
Model Projection
Tyra Caterina Grant ML +224 · +10.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Katie Boulter holds a commanding 134-point Elo advantage on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Katie Boulter has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Boulter 58.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →