Ugo Humbert vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Ugo Humbert 0. Ugo Humbert is favored with a 61.3% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1512
Grass Elo
VS
Grass • ATP
Ugo Humbert
1579
Grass Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicUgo Humbert
Grass
Surface
ATP Queen's Club Championships
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (5,703 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Queen's Club Championships
Surface
Grass
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Grass)
Ugo Humbert
Hamad Medjedovic
Ugo Humbert leads by 67 Elo points on Grass
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Grass: 63.5%
Ugo Humbert SPW
67.9%
Above tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
64.1%
Above tour avg
● Ugo Humbert has a significant serve advantage (+3.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ugo Humbert ML
-168
Model: 61%
Edge: -1.4%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
+149
Model: 39%
Edge: -1.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Ugo Humbert has a moderate 67-point Elo edge on Grass
- Grass surface amplifies serve advantage — expect fewer breaks, more tiebreaks
- Ugo Humbert has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ugo Humbert 61.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →