Vilius Gaubas vs Leandro Riedi prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Leandro Riedi 0 - Vilius Gaubas 0. Leandro Riedi is favored with a 50.7% win probability.
Leandro Riedi
1544
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Vilius Gaubas
1542
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Leandro RiediVilius Gaubas
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (1,457 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Vilius Gaubas
Leandro Riedi
Leandro Riedi leads by 2 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Vilius Gaubas SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Leandro Riedi SPW
60.7%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (2-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Leandro Riedi has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Leandro Riedi 50.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →