Yannick Hanfmann vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Yannick Hanfmann 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 55.7% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Yannick Hanfmann
1575
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicYannick Hanfmann
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (3,811 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Yannick Hanfmann
Hamad Medjedovic
Yannick Hanfmann leads by 72 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Yannick Hanfmann SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
62.8%
Below tour avg
● Hamad Medjedovic has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Yannick Hanfmann ML
+157
Model: 44%
Edge: +5.4%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-177
Model: 56%
Edge: -8.2%
Model Projection
Yannick Hanfmann ML +157 · +5.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Yannick Hanfmann has a moderate 72-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 55.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →