Yannick Hanfmann vs Hubert Hurkacz prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hubert Hurkacz 0 - Yannick Hanfmann 0. Hubert Hurkacz is favored with a 61.8% win probability.
Hubert Hurkacz
1620
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Yannick Hanfmann
1575
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hubert HurkaczYannick Hanfmann
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (1,654 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Yannick Hanfmann
Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz leads by 45 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Yannick Hanfmann SPW
72.1%
Above tour avg
Hubert Hurkacz SPW
75.8%
Above tour avg
● Hubert Hurkacz has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Yannick Hanfmann ML
-430
Model: 38%
Edge: -42.9%
Hubert Hurkacz ML
+513
Model: 62%
Edge: +45.5%
Model Projection
Hubert Hurkacz ML +513 · +45.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Hubert Hurkacz has a moderate 45-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hubert Hurkacz has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hubert Hurkacz 61.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →