What You Get
Spread Predictions
Cover probability for every NBA spread, calculated from 10,000 possession-level simulations. The model accounts for pace, shooting variance, and late-game dynamics to produce realistic spread distributions.
Moneyline Analysis
Win probability compared to sportsbook implied odds. Edge calculation identifies games where the market is mispricing outcomes based on our simulation output.
Total Projections
Projected combined scores from possession-level modeling. Accounts for pace matchups, defensive efficiency, and rest factors that affect total scoring output.
Kelly-Sized Recommendations
Each pick includes a Kelly Criterion unit recommendation calibrated for NBA markets. Larger edges get larger sizing. The system caps NBA bets at 3.0 units to manage variance.
The NBA Engine
The Possession MC V5.0.2 engine models each NBA game at the individual possession level. Every simulation runs through approximately 200 possessions per game, with each possession resolved using real player shooting distributions (Beta-parameterized), turnover rates, rebounding probabilities, and free throw scenarios.
Key features include 13-player roster modeling with realistic substitution patterns, score-state dynamics that adjust three-point attempt rates and pace based on game flow, and automated injury integration from multiple data sources.