Coody, Pierceson vs Smalley, Alex prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 93 - Coody, Pierceson 99. Coody, Pierceson is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The spread is -0.34.
Smalley, Alex
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Coody, Pierceson
+0.61
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexCoody, Pierceson
+100
Best Odds
+9.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Coody, Pierceson
9299106
Smalley, Alex
8693100
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Coody, Pierceson
Strokes Gained
+0.61/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.196 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Coody, Pierceson
+0.61 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
-0.34 SG/round
tight edge for Smalley, Alex
Smalley, Alex
+0.94 SG
EF 93th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.6%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+9.2%
Coody, Pierceson vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Coody, Pierceson 54.6% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+9.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.34 SG/round. Expected finish: 99.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Coody, Pierceson 54.6%
+9.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+9.2 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →