Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Griffin, Ben prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Griffin, Ben 90 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 98. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The spread is -0.2.
Griffin, Ben
+1.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Griffin, BenFitzpatrick, Alex
+111
Best Odds
+11.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
9198105
Griffin, Ben
839097
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.80/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.078 SG adj
Expected Finish
98th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80 SG
EF 98th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Griffin, Ben
Griffin, Ben
+1.02 SG
EF 90th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.0%
Books Say
47.4%
Edge
+11.8%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Griffin, Ben: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 53.0% win probability vs 47.4% implied (+11.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 98.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 53.0%
+11.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+11.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →