Henley, Russell vs Thomas, Justin prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 77 - Henley, Russell 69. Henley, Russell is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is 0.77.
Thomas, Justin
+0.87
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Henley, Russell
+1.62
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinHenley, Russell
-115
Best Odds
+8.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
626976
Thomas, Justin
707784
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.62/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.173 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.62 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
+0.77 SG/round
meaningful edge for Henley, Russell
Thomas, Justin
+0.87 SG
EF 77th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+8.5%
Henley, Russell vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Henley, Russell 58.0% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+8.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.77 SG/round. Expected finish: 69.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 58.0%
+8.5 pts
Spread
+0.8
+8.5 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →