Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spieth, Jordan 86 - Reed, Patrick 98. Reed, Patrick is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The spread is 0.03.
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Reed, Patrick
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spieth, JordanReed, Patrick
+111
Best Odds
+12.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Reed, Patrick
9198105
Spieth, Jordan
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Reed, Patrick
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.093 SG adj
Expected Finish
98th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Reed, Patrick
+0.97 SG
EF 98th
Skill Gap
+0.03 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Spieth, Jordan
+0.95 SG
EF 86th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.4%
Books Say
47.4%
Edge
+12.8%
Reed, Patrick vs Spieth, Jordan: Model gives Reed, Patrick 53.4% win probability vs 47.4% implied (+12.8% edge). Expected finish: 98.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Reed, Patrick 53.4%
+12.8 pts
Spread
+0.0
+12.8 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →