Smith, Jordan vs Bezuidenhout, Christiaan prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bezuidenhout, Christiaan 106 - Smith, Jordan 103. Smith, Jordan is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The spread is -0.09.
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan
+0.63
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Smith, Jordan
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bezuidenhout, ChristiaanSmith, Jordan
-117
Best Odds
+13.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Smith, Jordan
96103110
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan
99106113
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Smith, Jordan
Strokes Gained
+0.53/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
103th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Smith, Jordan
+0.53 SG
EF 103th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan
+0.63 SG
EF 106th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.3%
Books Say
53.9%
Edge
+13.7%
Smith, Jordan vs Bezuidenhout, Christiaan: Model gives Smith, Jordan 61.3% win probability vs 53.9% implied (+13.7% edge). Expected finish: 103.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Smith, Jordan 61.3%
+13.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.7 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →