Stevens, Sam vs Theegala, Sahith prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Theegala, Sahith 51 - Stevens, Sam 34. Stevens, Sam is favored with a 67.2% win probability. The spread is 0.02.
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Stevens, Sam
+0.81
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Theegala, SahithStevens, Sam
-125
Best Odds
+21.0%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Stevens, Sam
273441
Theegala, Sahith
445158
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
77°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Stevens, Sam
Strokes Gained
+0.81/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.256 SG adj
Expected Finish
34th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Stevens, Sam
+0.81 SG
EF 34th
Skill Gap
+0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Theegala, Sahith
+0.81 SG
EF 51th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
67.2%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+21.0%
Stevens, Sam vs Theegala, Sahith: Model gives Stevens, Sam 67.2% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+21.0% edge). Expected finish: 34.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Stevens, Sam 67.2%
+21.0 pts
Spread
+0.0
+21.0 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →