Stevens, Sam vs Thomas, Justin prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 37 - Stevens, Sam 35. Stevens, Sam is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The spread is 0.02.
Thomas, Justin
+0.73
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Stevens, Sam
+0.74
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinStevens, Sam
+100
Best Odds
+5.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Stevens, Sam
283542
Thomas, Justin
303744
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Stevens, Sam
Strokes Gained
+0.74/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.194 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Stevens, Sam
+0.74 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
+0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Thomas, Justin
+0.73 SG
EF 37th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
52.9%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+5.7%
Stevens, Sam vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Stevens, Sam 52.9% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+5.7% edge). Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Stevens, Sam 52.9%
+5.7 pts
Spread
+0.0
+5.7 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →