Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 20,000 game iterations and projects Disguised 2 - Shopify Rebellion 0. Disguised is favored with a 70.8% win probability. Most likely series score: 0-2 (Best of 3).
Disguised
2
Projected Maps
VS
Bo3 • LCS
Shopify Rebellion
0
Projected Maps
Series Win Probability
DisguisedShopify Rebellion
0-2
Most Likely Score
HIGH
Confidence
20,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (9,273 games)
Team Profiles
Shopify Rebellion
Early
42%
Mid
46%
Late
43%
Elo: 1182 · ⚔️ Teamfight · Record: 9-17 (35%)
Disguised
Early
54%
Mid
42%
Late
37%
Elo: 1382 · ⚔️ Teamfight · Record: 6-22 (21%)
Score Distribution
Shopify Rebellion winsDisguised wins
0-2
40.2%
1-2
30.6%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
17.4%
Advantage Breakdown
Player +0.5%Draft -0.1%Phase -0.3%Context -0.6%
Key Factors
- Disguised holds a significant Elo advantage (200 pts)
- Disguised is in stronger recent form
Market Odds
Shopify Rebellion
+125
Edge: -34.3%
Disguised
-165
Edge: +13.7%
🎯 Projection: Disguised ML @ -165 · Edge +13.7%
championship_v2.1 · 20,000 sims · Uncertainty: 0.30
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets League of Legends Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 20,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →