SF vs OAK prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 2.6 - SF 3.4. SF is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
OAK
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
SF
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSF
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
OAK
135
Projected
OAK 2.6 — SF 3.4
Actual
OAK 4 — SF 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI54%94 mph9% whiff
SL32%87 mph48% whiff
CH13%85 mph46% whiff
Luis Severino R
OAK
SI24%96 mph14% whiff
ST24%85 mph25% whiff
FF22%97 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
68°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.35ERA
4.10FIP
7.74K/9
4.91BB/9
1.35WHIP
OAK
4.38ERA
3.93FIP
9.19K/9
4.59BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-59.2% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+42.0% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 5.5
+38.4% EV
-128
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-33.6% EV
+146
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.3% EV
-179
NRFI NRFI
+28.4% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
46.5% win
OAK F5
1.1 runs
28.1% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
69.2%
YRFI
30.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
26%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Luis Severino
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Heliot Ramos LFDAY-TO-DAY
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=263)
EXTREME TOTAL UNDER edge: 42.0% (model 76% vs market 21% implied under) — HIGHEST EDGE OF ENTIRE SLATE. SF away @ OAK home. Away pitchers dominate: Trevor McDonald (OAK, 3.15 ERA, excellent B-grade) vs Luis Severino (SF, 4.4 ERA, C+ grade). Wait — McDonald is OAK away pitcher, Severino is SF... RECHECK: SF away sends Severino (4.4 ERA) vs OAK home McDonald (3.15 ERA). Model projects 6.05 total vs market 10.0 (4.0 run gap!). This is extreme market mispricing or model error. Temperature 67.9F (cool) helps, but 4-run gap is massive.
Key Factors
- EXTREME TOTAL UNDER edge 42.0% (model 76% vs market 21% implied) — HIGHEST of day
- F5 UNDER edge 38.4% (model 77.8%) — exceptional early-inning value
- Pitcher advantage to one team clear (3.15 ERA vs 4.4 ERA gap) — ~1.3 run swing
- Market pricing 10.0 suggests league-average high-altitude game; model sees pitcher duel
- NRFI elite 28.4% edge (63.6% prob) — first-inning scoring expected suppressed
Risk Factors
- EXTREME edge (42%) in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR) — MAXIMUM caution, possible model overconfidence
- Data integrity concern: pitcher assignment may be reversed; need verification
- Market at 10.0 implies aggressive run-scoring expectations; if correct, edge evaporates
EXTREME TOTAL UNDER EDGEDATA INTEGRITY PITCHER ASSIGNMENT UNCLEARF5 UNDER ELITE EDGENRFI ELITE EDGEYELLOW ZONE MAXIMUM CAUTIONHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 58.2%
-33.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-33.6 pts
Total
10.0
+42.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →