NCG Esports vs SDM Tigres prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 20,000 game iterations and projects SDM Tigres 2 - NCG Esports 0. SDM Tigres is favored with a 70.4% win probability. Most likely series score: 0-2 (Best of 3).
SDM Tigres
2
Projected Maps
VS
Bo3 • LRN
NCG Esports
0
Projected Maps
Series Win Probability
SDM TigresNCG Esports
0-2
Most Likely Score
HIGH
Confidence
20,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.1% (10,128 games)
Team Profiles
NCG Esports
Elo: 1322 · 📈 Scaling · Record: 4-7 (36%)
SDM Tigres
Elo: 1660 · ⚔️ Teamfight · Record: 10-6 (62%)
Score Distribution
NCG Esports winsSDM Tigres wins
0-2
40.5%
1-2
29.8%
2-0
12.2%
2-1
17.4%
Advantage Breakdown
Player -0.1%Draft -0.2%Phase -0.7%Context -0.1%
Key Factors
- SDM Tigres holds a significant Elo advantage (338 pts)
- SDM Tigres is in stronger recent form
Market Odds
NCG Esports
+317
Edge: +23.4%
SDM Tigres
-488
Edge: -15.2%
🎯 Projection: NCG Esports ML @ +317 · Edge +23.4%
championship_v2.1 · 20,000 sims · Uncertainty: 0.71
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets League of Legends Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 20,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →