ARI vs BAL prediction for April 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.4 - ARI 4.5. BAL is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALARI
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARIBAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
346
BAL
246
Pick Results
Ildemaro Vargas OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
CH34%85 mph23% whiff
FF33%91 mph24% whiff
FC18%89 mph10% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SL35%86 mph33% whiff
SI33%94 mph6% whiff
FF16%94 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
87°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.989
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
4.27ERA
4.22FIP
8.39K/9
3.20BB/9
1.11WHIP
BAL
3.22ERA
3.68FIP
11.17K/9
3.78BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.0% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-16.3% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-15.5% EV
-159
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.2% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+12.0% EV
+126
ML HOME
-11.1% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.6 runs
43.4% win
BAL F5
2.5 runs
41.2% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 18.4% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 1.03x
Johnathan Rodríguez BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.092 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eduardo Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Ketel Marte 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Gabriel Moreno C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar SS60-DAY-IL
Carlos Santana 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Heston Kjerstad LF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Kittredge RP15-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP10-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 50.7%
-12.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →