ARI vs COL prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 4.3 - ARI 5.1. ARI is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
COL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
ARI
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLARI
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARICOL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
COL
246
Pick Results
Nolan Arenado OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+1.05u
Gabriel Moreno OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Soroka R
ARI
FF34%94 mph13% whiff
SV33%81 mph36% whiff
FC12%89 mph14% whiff
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
CH21%84 mph32% whiff
FF19%94 mph10% whiff
SI17%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
70°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.163 Total: 1.083
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
4.05ERA
3.82FIP
8.26K/9
2.82BB/9
1.09WHIP
COL
4.69ERA
4.16FIP
8.61K/9
3.89BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.4% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-21.7% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+10.6% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.2% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-5.7% EV
-147
F5 UNDER 5.5
+5.3% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.8 runs
47.8% win
COL F5
2.4 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Ildemaro Vargas ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Nolan Arenado ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x
Adrian Del Castillo ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Soroka
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Michael Lorenzen
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
Carlos Santana 1B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Tyler Freeman RFPATERNITY
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 55.7%
-37.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.4 pts
Total
10.5
+10.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →