FINAL: LAD 5 — ARI 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 4.2 - ARI 3.4 (LAD at 60.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
LAD
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADARI
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
LAD
246
Projected
LAD 4.2 — ARI 3.4
Actual
LAD 5 — ARI 4
Pick Results
OVER 8.5totalWIN+0.88u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryne Nelson R
ARI
FF62%96 mph16% whiff
SL14%87 mph32% whiff
CU11%80 mph26% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF47%96 mph24% whiff
SL31%88 mph39% whiff
CH16%86 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
64°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
5.80ERA
4.86FIP
7.91K/9
4.70BB/9
1.62WHIP
LAD
3.71ERA
3.73FIP
10.84K/9
3.85BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.6% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.3% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.1% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+17.5% EV
-102
ML AWAY
+15.5% EV
+205
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.5% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.9 runs
35.3% win
LAD F5
2.3 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.5%
YRFI
41.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Shohei Ohtani LAD16.6%
ISO: 0.378 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Ryne Nelson | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI13.4%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ketel Marte ARI12.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryne Nelson
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Pavin Smith 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
Merrill Kelly SP15-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Locklear 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP15-DAY-IL
Evan Phillips RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE60.1% WR (n=84)
Dodger Stadium's 7 mph inward wind (total_mult 0.991, HR mult 0.988), Sheehan's 28.6% K rate, and the model projecting 7.64 runs vs market's 8.5 creates a meaningful under lean — though the 15.5% away ML edge for ARI is a HIGH_EDGE_WARNING trap that must be avoided.
Key Factors
- Model total 7.64 vs market 8.5 — gap of -0.86 runs; 59.4% under probability
- Dodger Stadium: 7 mph wind blowing in (total_mult 0.991, HR mult 0.988) — moderate run suppressor at 64°F
- Emmet Sheehan: B grade (0.620 overall), 28.6% K rate, FF/SL/CH mix — one of LAD's best available arms given Snell/Stone/Knack/Miller all IL
- Ryne Nelson: B- grade (0.495), 21.3% K rate vs Sheehan's 28.6% — clear SP quality mismatch (Sheehan better by full grade level)
- F5 under 4.5 edge 15.5% (model prob 57.8%) — first 5 innings project just 4.18 combined runs; Sheehan is the anchor that keeps F5 clean
Risk Factors
- ARI ML edge 15.5% — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; away underdog at +204 in RED zone (38.1% historical WR) — this is the classic model overconfidence trap, hard avoid
- ARI missing Burnes (60-day, elbow), Kelly (15-day, ribs), plus 5 bullpen arms — ARI bullpen ERA 5.80 (worst on today's slate) and mopup ERA 8.94 — if Ryne Nelson exits early, the game could blow open
- LAD missing Snell + Stone + Knack + Miller — all IL; Sheehan is the de facto #1 but LAD's setup ERA is 5.34 (poor) — bullpen outside closer (2.48 ERA) is a liability
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 60.4%
-18.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.1 pts
Total
8.5
+17.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →