FINAL: MIA 2 — ARI 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 5.0 - ARI 4.1 (MIA at 61.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
MIA
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAARI
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARI L4MIA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (2,284 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 5.0 — ARI 4.1
Actual
MIA 2 — ARI 0
Pick Results
MIA MLmlWIN+0.89u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
FF27%92 mph13% whiff
CH26%88 mph29% whiff
FC15%91 mph13% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI28%96 mph2% whiff
ST24%84 mph38% whiff
FS24%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.087 Total: 1.048
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.44ERA
3.66FIP
8.13K/9
3.04BB/9
1.11WHIP
MIA
3.51ERA
3.67FIP
9.57K/9
4.45BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-27.3% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-25.1% EV
+152
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-23.5% EV
-185
ML AWAY
-18.7% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
+15.1% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-10.4% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.1 runs
29.2% win
MIA F5
3.3 runs
58.2% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
48.2%
YRFI
51.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 3.5% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA28.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Esteury Ruiz MIA28.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Merrill Kelly
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Santana 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.6% WR (n=5)
Tyler Phillips (2.25 ERA, 11.8% BB) is a legitimate ace relative to Merrill Kelly (6.17 ERA, 9.2% BB) — a 3.92-run mismatch that the market has underpriced by 4.4% (model 58.9% vs market implied 53.8%). At home in neutral park with favorable wind conditions, MIA's pitcher edge is the only real signal.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Phillips 2.25 ERA (B-/C+ grade, 19.5% K rate) vs Kelly 6.17 ERA (C/B- grade, 14.0% K rate) — 3.92-run Bayesian ERA gap
- Home ML combo green zone: 60.5% WR on 61 tracked home ML bets indicates favorable sample for home side
- Market underestimating ERA gap: Model 58.9% vs market implied 53.8% on a dominant pitcher advantage suggests sharp money hasn't fully loaded MIA yet
- Retractable roof neutralizes weather risk: loanDepot park controls environment; 86F and 10.5 mph out wind would normally inflate totals but pitcher quality dominates
Risk Factors
- Zone is YELLOW, not GREEN: 53.6% WR on 5-10% edge home ML bets is marginally profitable; small sample size creates variance risk
- Kelly's arm health unknown: No recent IL designation but 6.17 ERA suggests decline; if Phillips is also compromised, edge collapses
- Road teams in June often outperform home teams before AS break — historical -2% adjustment for early June home teams
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 61.0%
-23.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-23.5 pts
Total
8.5
+0.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →