ARI vs PHI prediction for April 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.9 - ARI 3.9. PHI is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIARI
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
PHI
246
Pick Results
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.59u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
SI24%93 mph8% whiff
FF23%94 mph18% whiff
ST18%85 mph31% whiff
Taijuan Walker R
PHI
FC29%87 mph18% whiff
FS22%87 mph19% whiff
SI20%92 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
62°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.989
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
4.13ERA
3.75FIP
8.38K/9
2.92BB/9
1.11WHIP
PHI
3.58ERA
2.30FIP
9.68K/9
2.06BB/9
1.06WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.7% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-19.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.6% EV
+140
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.3% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.2% EV
-102
ML HOME
-7.1% EV
-133
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.2 runs
40.1% win
PHI F5
2.3 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Corbin Carroll ARI50.0%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Taijuan Walker | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI50.0%
ISO: 0.417 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI46.2%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Taijuan Walker
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Gabriel Moreno CDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Lawlar SS60-DAY-IL
Carlos Santana 1B10-DAY-IL
Merrill Kelly SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Aidan Miller SSDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Max Lazar RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE55.3% WR (n=32)
Both starters have modest strikeout stuff (Walker 10.05 ERA, Pfaadt 7.29 ERA, K-rates 8.0) in cold weather (62F, wind neutral) — market total 8.5 is fair-valued despite 13.3% edge on UNDER, but YELLOW zone (55.3% WR) + small edge suggests lean rather than bet.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors UNDER: Walker (C- grade, 10.05 ERA, 0.133 stuff score) vs. Pfaadt (B- grade, 7.29 ERA, 0.241 stuff score) — Pfaadt has slight edge but both backend starters.
- Cold weather (62F) + neutral wind = no inflating factor; weather multiplier 0.989 applies (-0.5 runs).
- PHI bullpen quality (3.58 ERA) vs. ARI (4.13 ERA) — slight home advantage.
- Model 13.3% UNDER edge is real but YELLOW zone (55.3% WR) = not a strong play. Recent 14d shows 55.3% WR but small sample (n=32).
- Market has fairly priced the quality mismatch; expect low-scoring game but edge is 1-2 runs of value at best.
Risk Factors
- Both teams can score in spurts — ARI has Carroll (50% HR prob), PHI has Schwarber (50% HR prob). One swing can inflate totals.
- Weather data shows wind at 13.3 mph but neutral direction — could create unpredictable air currents at CBP.
- YELLOW zone historical performance (55.3% WR) is only slightly above breakeven — unit modifier 0.75 reflects uncertainty.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 51.8%
-13.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.6 pts
Total
8.5
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →