ARI vs SEA prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.8 - ARI 3.3. SEA is favored with a 66.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
SEA
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
ARI
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAARI
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
SEA
357
Pick Results
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.88u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryne Nelson R
ARI
FF58%96 mph16% whiff
SL19%88 mph32% whiff
CU9%80 mph19% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph21% whiff
SI18%95 mph7% whiff
ST15%84 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
60°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.45ERA
3.73FIP
8.10K/9
2.70BB/9
1.04WHIP
SEA
2.96ERA
3.57FIP
9.16K/9
3.36BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-51.7% EV
-185
F5_ML AWAY
-22.3% EV
+126
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-21.8% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-20.2% EV
+130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+16.2% EV
+152
ML HOME
+7.7% EV
-154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.6 runs
27.2% win
SEA F5
2.9 runs
57.8% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryne Nelson
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
Nolan Arenado 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
Hayden Durke RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=6)
Woo (8.4 K/9, 0.755 command, B-) is elite pitcher with slight edge to Nelson (7.3 K/9, 0.705 command, B-). SEA home with park factor 0.89 (suppresses runs) + cold weather (59.6°F) = under-friendly environment. Model 65.3% vs 60.6% market = 4.7% edge. Undervalued home favorite.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Bryan Woo (SEA home, B-, 8.4 K/9, excellent command 0.755 grade) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI away, B-, 7.3 K/9, excellent command 0.705 grade). WOO IS SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR: +1.1 K/9, B- vs B- grade. Both are quality pitchers.
- Bryan Woo is clearly elite pitcher (B- grade, 8.4 K/9, 0.755 command). This is strong pitcher advantage to SEA home.
- T-Mobile Park (SEA home) has park factor 0.89 (suppresses runs). Combined with 59.6°F (cold) = under-friendly conditions. Model 8.01 vs market 7.0 reflects this.
- SEA lineup quality decent (Kyle Seager, Julio Rodríguez). ARI lineup weak (rebuilding team, Lawlar out on IL). SEA has clear quality edge.
- Model shows 65.3% for SEA home vs 60.6% market. 4.7% edge is solid value for -153 home favorite.
Risk Factors
- High confidence (65.3%) is borderline problematic historically. High prob (>65%) shows worse WR per calibration data. Confidence should be LEAN, not BET.
- Zone profile shows small sample (n=6) for 5-10% edge, 65-70% prob bucket. Overall home ML combo zone 61.6% (n=80) is stronger.
- ARI has some quality bats (Arenado, Grichuk) despite being away. Not a complete pushover.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 66.8%
+16.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+16.2 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →