ARI vs TB prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.8 - ARI 5.2. ARI is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
TB
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBARI
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
TB
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jose Cabrera R
ARI
FC24%90 mph0% whiff
ST21%83 mph43% whiff
FF18%95 mph29% whiff
Cole Sulser R
TB
FF43%92 mph17% whiff
CH40%84 mph36% whiff
FC12%87 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
92°F3 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+47.7% EV
+160
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-35.5% EV
+116
ML HOME
-33.9% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-20.1% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-12.4% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+9.3% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
3.1 runs
56.8% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
30.8% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Cole Sulser | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Gabriel Moreno ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Cole Sulser | Park: 0.92x
Max Kepler ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.107 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Cole Sulser | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jose Cabrera
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Cole Sulser
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
+2 more
TB8 injured
Luis Guerrero RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Davidson 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 61.9%
-35.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-35.5 pts
Total
7.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →