ATL vs CWS prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.5 - ATL 4.8. CWS is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
CWS
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSATL
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
CWS
467
Projected
CWS 5.5 — ATL 4.8
Actual
CWS 6 — ATL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL40%85 mph39% whiff
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SI8%93 mph6% whiff
Brandon Eisert L
CWS
FF40%90 mph22% whiff
SL28%84 mph32% whiff
CH25%84 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
87°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.998
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.22ERA
2.79FIP
9.79K/9
2.37BB/9
0.98WHIP
CWS
4.40ERA
4.45FIP
8.64K/9
4.64BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-29.7% EV
-149
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-29.3% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
+27.4% EV
+120
ML AWAY
-23.4% EV
-152
ML HOME
+22.8% EV
+128
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-18.3% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.4 runs
32.5% win
CWS F5
3.4 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 1.01x
Andrew Benintendi CWS28.9%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Eisert
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.4% WR (n=216)
Model shows CWS 57.4% at home with +22.8% ML edge despite similar pitcher grades (Eisert 3.47 ERA vs Holmes 4.17 ERA); high edge + elevated prob (15%+ edge + 55%+ prob) triggers calibration caution (historically 25% WR in this bucket); home field overweighting likely with minimal meaningful pitcher separation.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap overstated: Eisert 3.47 ERA (B-, 0.474 overall) vs Holmes 4.17 ERA (B-, 0.424 overall) = 0.7 ERA gap, not massive
- 22% edge is HIGH: Falls into historically worst-performing 15-25% edge bucket with 25% WR; suspect overconfidence
- CWS missing outfielders: Munetaka (10-day) and Pereira (10-day) reduce home lineup power; estimate -0.5pt swing vs healthy
- Wind IN (8.8 mph): Suppresses offense slightly, benefiting Eisert's lower K rate (lower K = fewer HR chances)
Risk Factors
- High-edge trap: 22%+ edges have worst historical performance; likely market trap
- F5_ML even higher: +27.4% edge on F5_ML is extreme; suggests model seeing some anomaly (perhaps early inning split history)
- Home field limited: CWS is neutral park (1.0), no weather advantage (87F, 9mph in wind)
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCH MINOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 57.4%
-18.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-18.3 pts
Total
9.5
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →