ATL vs CWS prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.5 - ATL 4.6. CWS is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
CWS
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
ATL
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSATL
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
CWS
346
Projected
CWS 4.5 — ATL 4.6
Actual
CWS 2 — ATL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
SL41%79 mph40% whiff
FF39%96 mph20% whiff
CH12%88 mph31% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph24% whiff
SI17%93 mph10% whiff
CH17%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
74°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.986
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.24ERA
2.90FIP
9.57K/9
2.43BB/9
0.99WHIP
CWS
4.47ERA
4.72FIP
8.57K/9
4.81BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.1% EV
-147
F5_ML AWAY
-24.1% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
+21.2% EV
+128
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-20.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.9% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.2 runs
36.7% win
CWS F5
2.8 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
9%
Miguel Vargas CWS29.2%
ISO: 0.373 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Chris Sale | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL27.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Davis Martin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Derek Hill CWS22.1%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Chris Sale | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Sale
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE47.0% WR (n=50)
CWS home value: Davis Martin (2.82 ERA, B grade) vs Chris Sale (2.41 ERA, B grade) nearly matched. Model 48.7% CWS home vs market 44.2% — modest +10.2% edge. F5 ML HOME +21.2% is sharpest angle (53.2% model). Overs also +9.4% (59.8% total). ATL injuries (Acuña 10-day hamstring) weaken lineup.
Key Factors
- SP nearly matched: Davis Martin (2.82 ERA, B grade stuff/command) vs Sale (2.41 ERA, B grade). Martin slightly worse but serviceable home.
- F5 ML edge +21.2%: Model 53.2% CWS F5 vs market ~32% — SHARPEST ANGLE. Early inning home value clear.
- OVER edge +9.4%: Model 9.12 total vs market 7.0 (2.12 gap) — significant underprice on totals. Both lineups capable.
- ATL injuries: Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-day hamstring) major loss. Reduces ATL offensive depth meaningfully (~1pt on totals).
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone home underdog 47% WR (n=50) — below breakeven. CWS home dogs historically struggle.
- Sale is slight pitcher advantage despite market treating as heavy favorite (-147). Market may be correct.
- CWS bullpen concerns (multiple 60-day IL arms). If Martin exits early, relief quality poor.
WEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 50.6%
-31.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.1 pts
Total
7.0
+9.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →