FINAL: LAD 3 — ATL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 2.5 - ATL 3.8 (ATL at 63.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
LAD
2.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADATL
+1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
LAD
124
Projected
LAD 2.5 — ATL 3.8
Actual
LAD 3 — ATL 1
Pick Results
ATL MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
SL40%78 mph35% whiff
FF40%95 mph20% whiff
CH12%87 mph36% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF40%94 mph26% whiff
SL33%87 mph43% whiff
CH17%85 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
62°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.992
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.04ERA
3.08FIP
10.40K/9
2.76BB/9
1.11WHIP
LAD
3.32ERA
3.08FIP
10.11K/9
3.23BB/9
1.12WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-54.1% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-40.5% EV
-104
ML HOME
-25.8% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-25.5% EV
-104
ML AWAY
+20.1% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+19.2% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.1 runs
51.3% win
LAD F5
1.3 runs
27.2% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.420 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ozzie Albies ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Sale
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Burkhalter RPDAY-TO-DAY
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Evan Phillips RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE40.6% WR (n=15)
Exceptional UNDER dominance (+19.2% total edge, 64.4% model vs 45.2% market) + UNDER F5 (+11.8%, 67.4% model) + away ML (+20.1%, 59.4% model vs 49.5% market) converge on ATL road dog value across multiple markets. Driven by away pitcher excellence (Chris Sale 2.31 ERA, B grade elite) vs home weakness (Emmet Sheehan 5.65 ERA, B stuff but poor control), cold weather (61.9F, 6mph in, 0.992 multiplier), and Dodger Stadium park suppression (0.92 factor).
Key Factors
- Away pitcher ELITE: Sale 2.31 ERA (B grade, 28.6% K, 7% BB elite command) — second-best ERA on slate; dominant fastball/slider combo
- Home pitcher WEAK: Sheehan 5.65 ERA (B stuff grade but 7.3% BB, 27.2% K = mediocre), significantly outmatched
- SP mismatch AWAY advantage decisive: 3.34 ERA gap (largest for away team on slate) = 1.5-2.0 run total reduction
- Dodger Stadium park suppression: 0.92 factor removes 8% runs from baseline; structural advantage for unders
- Cold weather additive: 61.9F + 6mph in = 0.992 multiplier; 0.1 run drag
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING on away ML (+20.1%): historical 15%+ edges show 25% WR; RED zone away (46.4%) may overcome even elite arm advantage
- RED zone UNDER (43.4% WR) despite strong fundamentals; highest-risk component despite optimal conditions
- Sale on road; elite arms sometimes regress away from home park (minimal impact but noted)
STRONG BETAWAY PITCHER ELITEPARK SUPPRESSIONCOLD WEATHER MODIFIERMULTI MARKET CONVERGENCEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 63.4%
-54.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-54.1 pts
Total
8.0
+19.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →