FINAL: LAD 2 — ATL 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 3.4 - ATL 3.2 (LAD at 54.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
LAD
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ATL
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADATL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
135
LAD
135
Projected
LAD 3.4 — ATL 3.2
Actual
LAD 2 — ATL 7
Pick Results
ATL @ LAD NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL31%83 mph32% whiff
FF24%92 mph15% whiff
SI23%91 mph15% whiff
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph13% whiff
SL35%86 mph20% whiff
CU8%76 mph5% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
81°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.000
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.98ERA
3.08FIP
10.20K/9
2.70BB/9
1.10WHIP
LAD
3.32ERA
3.10FIP
9.77K/9
3.38BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-46.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.3% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+32.9% EV
-122
NRFI NRFI
+31.5% EV
+108
F5 UNDER 5.5
+30.2% EV
-132
F5_ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.4 runs
31.5% win
LAD F5
1.9 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
69.3%
YRFI
30.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
18%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Justin Wrobleski | Park: 0.92x
Ozzie Albies ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Justin Wrobleski | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.432 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryce Elder | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Burkhalter RPDAY-TO-DAY
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=243)
Model projects UNDER 9.5 with 32.9% edge (HIGHEST UNDER EDGE IN SLATE) and 73% probability. However, this is the EXACT PROFILE that has been DISASTROUS historically: high-edge unders in YELLOW zones have 50.5% WR. Totals are DISABLED specifically due to this failure pattern. Wrobleski's 1.35 ERA is suspicious without high K-rate (12.8% — lowest on slate for SPs). Do NOT bet this despite high nominal edge.
Key Factors
- UNDER 32.9% edge (HIGHEST IN SLATE) with 73% model prob — this is EXACTLY the profile that loses money historically. High-edge unders have 47.4% WR, -40.8 units (GRADE F).
- Wrobleski 1.35 ERA is suspicious: only 12.8% K-rate (lowest of all SPs today). Likely control pitcher with luck or elite defense, not true ace.
- Park factor 0.92 (slight suppression), weather 80.6°F mild, 7 mph IN — modest suppression. Model 6.65 vs market 9.5 is 2.85 run gap.
- Acuña (ATL) IL weakens away team, supporting UNDER but making model reliability questionable (sim may not account for latest IL).
Risk Factors
- This is the TEXTBOOK HIGH-EDGE UNDER FAILURE PROFILE. Calibration explicitly disabled totals due to 50% WR on high edges (15%+). Historical data shows 47.4% WR on unders, -40.8 units loss.
- Wrobleski's 1.35 ERA without high K-rate suggests inflated performance (luck, great defense) that may not persist
- Market has 9.5 total, which is reasonable given LAD offense and ATL weakness (Acuña out); market skepticism of model's low projection is justified
TOTALS FORBIDDENHIGH EDGE UNDER WARNINGSUSPICIOUS ERA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.4%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
9.5
+32.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →