ATL vs MIA prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.3 - ATL 4.5. ATL is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
MIA
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAATL
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
346
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.3 — ATL 4.5
Actual
MIA 4 — ATL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH32%83 mph31% whiff
SI29%90 mph5% whiff
FC21%86 mph12% whiff
Braxton Garrett L
MIA
SI27%91 mph40% whiff
SL22%84 mph12% whiff
FC20%87 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
83°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.043
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.16ERA
3.48FIP
9.92K/9
3.09BB/9
1.09WHIP
MIA
3.44ERA
3.51FIP
9.27K/9
4.55BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.4% EV
-143
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.1% EV
+118
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-13.8% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-12.6% EV
-143
F5_ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
-132
ML HOME
+6.9% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.9 runs
44.5% win
MIA F5
2.7 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
52.1%
YRFI
47.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Braxton Garrett | Park: 0.93x
Esteury Ruiz MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Martín Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Otto Lopez MIA26.1%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Martín Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Braxton Garrett
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF7-DAY IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 50.2%
-33.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.4 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →