ATL vs MIA prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.8 - ATL 3.5. MIA is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
MIA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
ATL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAATL
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
245
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.8 — ATL 3.5
Actual
MIA 1 — ATL 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
SL40%79 mph36% whiff
FF39%95 mph20% whiff
CH12%87 mph35% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
FF33%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph16% whiff
CH20%87 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
84°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.045
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.46ERA
2.77FIP
10.10K/9
2.76BB/9
1.00WHIP
MIA
3.64ERA
3.57FIP
9.38K/9
4.64BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
+33.4% EV
+158
ML HOME
+33.2% EV
+158
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-32.1% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-27.5% EV
-200
ML AWAY
-26.0% EV
-189
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.1% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.8 runs
35.1% win
MIA F5
2.2 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.349 | Barrel: 17.9% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Esteury Ruiz MIA26.4%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Chris Sale | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Xavier Edwards MIA24.4%
ISO: 0.295 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Chris Sale | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Sale
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 55.1%
-24.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.1 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →