ATL vs NYM prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.8 - ATL 3.7. NYM is favored with a 60.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
NYM
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMATL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 4.8 — ATL 3.7
Actual
NYM 7 — ATL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Strider R
ATL
FF48%95 mph15% whiff
SL26%84 mph35% whiff
CU15%78 mph46% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI35%95 mph15% whiff
ST18%85 mph19% whiff
FF17%96 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
93°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.005
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.21ERA
2.88FIP
9.53K/9
2.39BB/9
0.98WHIP
NYM
3.51ERA
3.76FIP
9.04K/9
3.57BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.3% EV
-196
F5_ML AWAY
-24.6% EV
+105
ML AWAY
-14.8% EV
+108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+13.7% EV
+160
F5_ML HOME
+10.0% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-6.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.9 runs
29.1% win
NYM F5
3.0 runs
57.0% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Spencer Strider | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Spencer Strider | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Strider
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=98)
Home favorite NYM modestly overpriced by model: 60.1% model vs 56.8% market (+3.9% edge). Nolan McLean (4.3 ERA, B- grade) vs Spencer Strider (4.32 ERA, B- grade) — nearly identical pitchers, SP mismatch negligible. Totals weak (both sides negative edge). Run line massive negative (-47.3%). Market accurately pricing low-scoring pitching duel. No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- McLean 4.3 ERA vs Strider 4.32 ERA — nearly identical (0.02-point difference), no meaningful SP leverage
- Low-K environment (both arms 27-29% range) suppresses run scoring; market correctly pricing ~8.0 total vs model 8.51 (minimal edge +0.51)
- ATL missing Acuna (-1pt swing unpriced = market already baked; no edge available)
Risk Factors
- Strider has elite stuff grade (B, 0.616 K-rate) but C+ command (0.399) — can blow up early or implode late
- +3.9% edge below 8% ML minimum threshold; SKIP
NEUTRAL PITCHER MATCHUPWEAK TOTAL EDGESRUN LINE BROKENLOW SCORING SETUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 60.1%
+13.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+13.7 pts
Total
8.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →