ATL vs NYM prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.3 - ATL 3.9. ATL is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMATL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.3 — ATL 3.9
Actual
NYM 8 — ATL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL28%83 mph30% whiff
FF25%93 mph15% whiff
SI25%91 mph13% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF54%94 mph20% whiff
CH23%87 mph27% whiff
CU12%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
88°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.092 Total: 1.051
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.13ERA
2.75FIP
9.95K/9
2.47BB/9
0.97WHIP
NYM
3.55ERA
3.78FIP
9.08K/9
3.39BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.8% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+21.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-20.2% EV
+160
F5_ML HOME
-18.2% EV
-130
ML HOME
-15.2% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.0 runs
46.1% win
NYM F5
1.7 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL28.7%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM25.4%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Bryce Elder | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.1%
-20.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-20.2 pts
Total
8.5
+21.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →