ATL vs SD prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.7 - ATL 3.9. SD is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
SD
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDATL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
SD
357
Projected
SD 4.7 — ATL 3.9
Actual
SD 1 — ATL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL39%85 mph38% whiff
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
SI8%93 mph12% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI29%93 mph13% whiff
CH26%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
66°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.0% EV
-192
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.8% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-18.1% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-14.1% EV
-109
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-12.8% EV
-122
ML HOME
+5.5% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.1 runs
34.0% win
SD F5
2.8 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C7-DAY IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE52.6% WR (n=7)
SD home projects 56.5% win prob (55.2% model) vs market 52.4% — 5.5% ML edge modest but validated. Michael King (0 ERA, 8.1 K-rate) > Grant Holmes (0 ERA, 8.0 K-rate) — slight pitcher advantage. PETCO Park (-10% run environment, 0.9 park factor) and cool 66.5F suppress scoring. F5 edge 4.4% (58% prob) mild. Lean home favorite in pitcher-friendly park.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Michael King (8.1 K-rate, B- grade, 0 ERA) vs Grant Holmes (8.0 K-rate, C+ grade) — slight SD advantage
- PETCO Park suppresses runs: 0.9 park factor (2nd most unfavorable), cool 66.5F, neutral wind — under-friendly
- Model total 8.53 vs market 7.5 = 1.03-run edge but in UNDER direction (low scoring expected)
- F5 edge 4.4% (58% prob) mild — early momentum SD
- ATL missing Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF, 10-day IL hamstring) — lineup weakened but Matt Olson elite (30% HR prob)
Risk Factors
- 5.5% edge modest; zone profile only 7 samples (low validation)
- PETCO park history shows extreme volatility; park factor doesn't always predict outcomes
- King's 0 ERA recorded is placeholder; actual skill unknown
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEPARK FACTORYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 56.5%
-27.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.0 pts
Total
7.5
+4.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →