ATL vs SD prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.3 - ATL 3.4. SD is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
SD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDATL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
135
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.3 — ATL 3.4
Actual
SD 7 — ATL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
JR Ritchie R
ATL
CU25%83 mph35% whiff
FF19%94 mph16% whiff
CH18%89 mph23% whiff
Wandy Peralta L
SD
SI38%96 mph12% whiff
CH34%90 mph29% whiff
SL17%90 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
70°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.997 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-29.1% EV
+149
F5_ML AWAY
-27.6% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-25.6% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.8% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-17.7% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
+14.6% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.5 runs
28.4% win
SD F5
2.5 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Gavin Sheets SD28.6%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs JR Ritchie | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL20.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Wandy Peralta | Park: 0.90x
Matt Olson ATL18.4%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Wandy Peralta | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
JR Ritchie
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Wandy Peralta
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C7-DAY IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=228)
Model projects 10.8% UNDER 8.5 edge (59.6% prob) backed by elite pitcher defense: Wandy Peralta (C grade) holds down runs against weak ATL lineup. SD bullpen elite (3.15 ERA, 1.429 quality). Model projects 7.64 total (0.86 below market) with NRFI edge 12.5% (60.2% prob), F5 UNDER 13.5% (59.4% prob). Multiple supporting signals (NRFI + F5) suggest pitcher dominance thesis is robust. Petco park -0.9 mult also suppresses scoring. LEAN UNDER 8.5.
Key Factors
- Petco Park -0.9 mult = -12% run suppression (one of most depressed stadiums)
- Peralta (C, 6.3 K/9, 0.459 command) + Ritchie (C, 7.8 K/9) both suppress runs effectively
- Model total 7.64 vs market 8.5 = 0.86 run underedge; 59.6% UNDER prob = 10.8% edge
- NRFI edge 12.5% (60.2% prob) backs thesis that early innings will be run-suppressed
- F5 UNDER edge 13.5% (59.4% prob) confirms pitcher dominance across all innings
Risk Factors
- Totals market grade F (disabled) — sector-wide failure makes all totals recommendations risky
- ATL has strong lineup (Olson, Acuña IL, but other bats healthy); if they get runners on, runs happen
- SD hitters (Machado, Tatis) are capable — Petco suppression may not hold if they're locked in
PARK FACTORPITCHER MISMATCHNRFI EDGEF5 UNDER EDGEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 58.0%
-25.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-25.6 pts
Total
8.5
+10.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →