ATL vs SD prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.0 - ATL 3.3. ATL is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
SD
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDATL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.0 — ATL 3.3
Actual
SD 5 — ATL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH33%82 mph31% whiff
SI31%90 mph9% whiff
FC21%86 mph19% whiff
JP Sears L
SD
FF40%92 mph16% whiff
ST27%79 mph23% whiff
CH15%83 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
73°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.0% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-37.5% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+25.2% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.3% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.8% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
-8.6% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.8 runs
41.8% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
58.3%
YRFI
41.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Matt Olson ATL28.6%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs JP Sears | Park: 0.90x
Manny Machado SD27.8%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Martín Pérez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL24.1%
ISO: 0.178 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs JP Sears | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
JP Sears
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 shows massive 25.2% edge (68.8% model vs 43.6% market). Model projects only 6.23 total runs vs market 8.5 line (-2.27 run deficit). Away pitcher Pérez (3.00 ERA, 20.7% K-rate) is good, home Sears (TBD ERA, B-) is mediocre. Petco Park factor 0.9 (-12% runs), weather 72.7°F (neutral), wind 6mph in (under lean). All factors support unders. However, 25.2% edge exceeds calibration comfort (max 8% base). Edge is real but calibration flag requires single-unit LEAN, not multi-unit BET.
Key Factors
- Park factor -0.9 (Petco -12% runs, typical condition). Suppresses total significantly.
- Away pitcher quality: Pérez 3.00 ERA (good) vs Sears TBD (mediocre). Pérez edge ~0.5-1.0 ERA.
- Model 6.23 vs market 8.5 = -2.27 run gap. Extreme under projection. Edge 25.2% is real but cap units.
Risk Factors
- 25.2% edge exceeds calibration max. Over-betting under this edge could backfire. Single-unit LEAN appropriate.
- Sears TBD ERA (missing data) adds slight uncertainty
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 52.6%
-40.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.0 pts
Total
8.5
+25.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →