ATL vs SEA prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.1 - ATL 3.7. ATL is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAATL
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.1 — ATL 3.7
Actual
SEA 5 — ATL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
JR Ritchie R
ATL
FF30%94 mph14% whiff
CU26%83 mph33% whiff
CH16%88 mph21% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF30%95 mph14% whiff
SL20%86 mph36% whiff
FS14%80 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
77°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.86ERA
3.16FIP
9.77K/9
2.71BB/9
1.07WHIP
SEA
3.53ERA
3.31FIP
9.56K/9
4.07BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.9% EV
-189
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.4% EV
+155
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-24.0% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-18.3% EV
-161
ML HOME
-17.3% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.6% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.8 runs
41.0% win
SEA F5
1.7 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.383 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Ozzie Albies ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs JR Ritchie | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
JR Ritchie
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Raisel Iglesias RP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Dodd RP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cal Raleigh CDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 55.1%
-24.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.4 pts
Total
7.5
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →