ATL vs SEA prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.1 - ATL 4.0. ATL is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAATL
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.1 — ATL 4.0
Actual
SEA 2 — ATL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL32%83 mph30% whiff
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
SI23%91 mph14% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
FF34%97 mph19% whiff
ST23%87 mph29% whiff
SI18%97 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
71°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.98ERA
3.29FIP
9.85K/9
2.83BB/9
1.11WHIP
SEA
3.44ERA
3.24FIP
9.62K/9
3.97BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-32.2% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-28.9% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.9% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-24.7% EV
-152
ML HOME
-22.4% EV
-139
F5_ML AWAY
+21.3% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.1 runs
47.0% win
SEA F5
1.6 runs
33.1% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.410 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Ozzie Albies ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Michael Harris II CFDAY-TO-DAY
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Dylan Dodd RP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE65.9% WR (n=44)
Bryce Elder's elite pitching (2.03 ERA, B-, best on board besides Ohtani) dominates George Kirby (3.24 ERA, B-) with 1.21 ERA gap; ATL away favorite at +118 underdog odds is severely undervalued given pitcher quality.
Key Factors
- ELITE away pitcher: Bryce Elder (ATL) 2.03 ERA, B-, 20.9% K rate vs George Kirby (SEA) 3.24 ERA, B-, 19.0% K rate (1.21 ERA gap, 2nd best after deGrom/Rodriguez)
- Away favorite profile with elite pitcher showing 65.9% WR historically (n=44) — our BEST combination
- Model 58.5% ATL (away) vs market 45.9% SEA — 12.6% prob edge is actionable
- Park factor neutral (0.89, slight suppression) + neutral weather — no external boost/drag
- SEA bullpen (3.44 ERA, 1.308 quality) vs ATL (2.98 ERA, 1.51 quality) — ATL relief edge +0.46 ERA
Risk Factors
- Market heavily backing SEA (-138) suggests potential information edge (injury info, lineup change) not in our data
- Away underdog status creates historical skepticism — despite pitcher quality, away dogs underperform
- 12.6% edge is moderate-to-high; per calibration, high-edge scenarios show worst performance
PITCHER MISMATCHELITE SPAWAY FAVORITESHARP OPPOSITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 58.5%
-32.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-32.2 pts
Total
8.0
+8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →