FINAL: SEA 3 — ATL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.1 - ATL 2.8 (SEA at 53.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAATL
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.1 — ATL 2.8
Actual
SEA 3 — ATL 1
Pick Results
ATL @ SEA NRFInrfiWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Martín Pérez L
ATL
SI31%90 mph6% whiff
CH31%83 mph26% whiff
FC22%87 mph12% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF48%96 mph21% whiff
SI20%95 mph5% whiff
ST15%84 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
60°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.982
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.88ERA
3.12FIP
10.22K/9
2.73BB/9
1.08WHIP
SEA
3.46ERA
3.30FIP
9.76K/9
3.98BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-48.3% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.6% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+31.7% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+30.5% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.9% EV
+155
NRFI NRFI
+10.4% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.4 runs
34.0% win
SEA F5
1.8 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.430 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Dylan Dodd RP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=236)
Model projects 5.89 total runs vs market 8.0 = significant 31.7% UNDER edge (67.2% model prob). SP matchup favors away (Pérez 2.40 ERA, C+ grade vs Woo 4.98 ERA, B grade = 2.58 gap), combined with cold Seattle weather (60.3°F, 6.3 mph in-wind), T-Mobile Park 0.89x multiplier (retractable, marine layer effects), and bullpen quality (SEA 3.46 relief ERA elite vs ATL 2.88 even better). UNDER 8.0 is actionable.
Key Factors
- SP quality gap: Pérez 2.40 ERA (C+, solid) vs Woo 4.98 ERA (B, average) = 2.58 gap favoring ATL.
- Cold weather suppression: Seattle 60.3°F with 6.3 mph in-wind = 0.8-1.0 run reduction vs 75°F baseline.
- Park factor: T-Mobile 0.89x (marine layer, historical seagull effect) = 12% run suppression.
- Bullpen edge: ATL 2.88 relief ERA (top-tier) vs SEA 3.46 (still strong), both suppress late-game runs.
Risk Factors
- Edge 31.7% is material but not extreme. Could still carry model overconfidence (typical high-edge floor is 25%).
- TOTAL market DISABLED (grade D). Recent history: 49.3% WR on totals. Suggests systematic underperformance.
- Cold weather is real but variable: Exact wind conditions matter. 6.3 mph in-wind is moderate, not extreme (2.8 points max delta).
SIGNIFICANT UNDER EDGE (31.7%, favors UNDER but below extreme threshold)DISABLED MARKET (TOTAL grade D, 49.3% WR)COLD WEATHER IMPACT (60.3°F, marine layer, 6.3 mph in-wind)BULLPEN ADVANTAGE (both top-tier but ATL elite)F5 UNDER VALUE (30.5% edge, F5 totals GREEN zone 57.4% WR)MINOR INJURY (Acuña -0.5 runs, marginal)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 53.7%
-12.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.9 pts
Total
8.0
+31.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →