ATL vs SF prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.3 - ATL 2.4. SF is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 4.7 total runs.
SF
2.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
2.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFATL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
024
SF
024
Projected
SF 2.3 — ATL 2.4
Actual
SF 5 — ATL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL27%83 mph29% whiff
SI26%91 mph13% whiff
FF24%93 mph14% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI32%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph29% whiff
ST20%84 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F19 mph wind
HR: 0.935 Total: 0.961
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-53.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.6% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+39.2% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.7% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.5% EV
+164
NRFI NRFI
+11.4% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.1 runs
35.7% win
SF F5
1.1 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
2.2
NRFI
69.3%
YRFI
30.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
66%
Over 1.5 HR
30%
No HR
34%
Matt Olson ATL17.8%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL15.6%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL14.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=253)
ATL @ SF: Model 4.68 total vs market 8.0 = 39.2% UNDER edge (ELITE). Logan Webb (SF home, B- pitcher, 0.433 overall, 20.7% K) vs Bryce Elder (ATL away, B- pitcher, 0.423 overall, 19.8% K). Pitcher quality near-parity (both B-, K-rates 20.7% vs 19.8%). BUT Oracle Park wind EXTREME: 19.4 mph IN = -14.4 mph tail wind, -0.065 park factor (worst on slate). 61.9°F cold + 14mph wind-in = massive run suppression. Model 4.68 total reflects weather + pitcher control alignment. Market 8.0 ignores EXTREME wind-in. SECOND-STRONGEST UNDER PLAY.
Key Factors
- EXTREME wind-in: 19.4 mph Oracle wind = -14.4 mph tail wind (WORST on entire slate), -0.065 park factor (extreme suppression)
- Cold temp: 61.9°F reduces air density, suppresses fly balls, adds ~0.5 run reduction
- Pitcher control: Both B- (0.433 vs 0.423), K-rates 20.7% vs 19.8% — solid control, supports under
- Model precision: 4.68 total = most conservative projection on slate, justified by wind + cold
- NRFI edge: +11.4% (model 64.0%), confirms early pitcher dominance
Risk Factors
- 39.2% edge EXTREME: Historically worst-performing bucket; model likely overconfident
- UNDER market disabled: Grade F (n=147, -14.6 units) — systematic profitability failure
- Market 8.0 may be correct: Professional oddsmakers aware of Oracle wind; 8.0 may reflect real value
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORHIGH EDGE WARNINGGREEN ZONE ADJACENTNRFI VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.3%
-14.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.5 pts
Total
8.0
+39.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →