ATL vs SF prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.4 - ATL 2.5. SF is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 4.9 total runs.
SF
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFATL
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
124
SF
024
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL27%83 mph29% whiff
SI26%91 mph13% whiff
FF24%93 mph14% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI32%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph29% whiff
ST20%84 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
75°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.970 Total: 0.980
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-40.2% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.0% EV
-137
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+30.0% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-24.5% EV
+114
F5 UNDER 3.5
+23.3% EV
+106
ML AWAY
-16.8% EV
-156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.1 runs
37.2% win
SF F5
1.2 runs
38.9% win
F5 Total
2.4
NRFI
68.7%
YRFI
31.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
70%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
30%
Matt Olson ATL24.4%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL21.6%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL19.4%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.3%
-35.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.0 pts
Total
7.5
+30.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →