BAL vs LAA prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 5.6 - BAL 5.2. LAA is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
LAA
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAABAL
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
LAA
468
Projected
LAA 5.6 — BAL 5.2
Actual
LAA 1 — BAL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI32%95 mph10% whiff
SL26%87 mph32% whiff
CU22%84 mph42% whiff
Sam Aldegheri L
LAA
FF42%92 mph9% whiff
CH33%81 mph32% whiff
FC16%87 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
74°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
+27.6% EV
+134
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-27.5% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-27.3% EV
-167
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-25.9% EV
+106
ML HOME
+22.1% EV
+136
ML AWAY
-21.8% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.6 runs
35.6% win
LAA F5
3.4 runs
52.0% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Sam Aldegheri
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Adley Rutschman C7-DAY IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Niko Kavadas 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.9% WR (n=116)
LAA home projects 54.4% win prob (51.7% model) vs market 42.4% — 22.1% ML edge (!). But high edge = caution. Aldegheri (0 ERA, 6.3 K-rate, C grade, 14.1% BB) is abysmal vs Bradish (4.32 ERA, 8.0 K-rate, C+ grade). Market correct: away dog Bradish is better pitcher. LAA home field (Angel Stadium, 74.5F, 7 mph in) neutral. F5 edge 27.6% (54.5% prob) highly suspicious — model likely interpolating.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Aldegheri abysmal (0 ERA, 6.3 K-rate, 14.1% BB rate, C grade) vs Bradish acceptable (4.32 ERA, 8.0 K-rate, C+ grade) — BAL pitcher ADVANTAGE
- Model 51.7% LAA home vs market 42.4% — 9.3% edge but direction wrong (model favors team with WORSE pitcher)
- F5 edge 27.6% (54.5% prob LAA) highly suspicious; likely model error on rookie Aldegheri data
- Home field Angel Stadium (74.5F, 7 mph IN) actually slight wind-in — not favorable for runs
- Bullpen: BAL 4.34 ERA (poor), LAA 4.26 ERA (poor) — no advantage
Risk Factors
- Model sees LAA home value (+22.1% edge) but pitcher direction contradicts (Bradish > Aldegheri clearly)
- High edge (22.1%) + directional mismatch = model likely error on unproven Aldegheri
- F5 edge 27.6% is unrealistic and suggests calibration breakdown for rookie pitcher
DATA INTEGRITYPITCHER ADVANTAGE BALMODEL MARKET CONFLICTINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 54.4%
-20.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.5 pts
Total
9.0
+5.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →