BAL vs LAA prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.8 - BAL 6.3. BAL is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
LAA
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAABAL
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
468
LAA
357
Projected
LAA 4.8 — BAL 6.3
Actual
LAA 5 — BAL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF33%96 mph13% whiff
KC33%85 mph27% whiff
FC18%90 mph20% whiff
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
FC32%90 mph29% whiff
SI28%92 mph2% whiff
FS25%84 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
72°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.8% EV
-137
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-30.5% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-12.8% EV
+118
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+9.9% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
+6.5% EV
-135
ML HOME
-4.5% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
3.7 runs
53.4% win
LAA F5
2.7 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.6%
YRFI
53.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Holliday 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C7-DAY IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Niko Kavadas 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE46.1% WR (n=118)
Model projects away ML -3.8% (edge against BAL), yet market prices BAL +120 (45.5% implied) vs LAA -142 (58.7%). Model expects 56.6% BAL WP but market disagrees sharply. Ryan Johnson (13.86 ERA, terrible 0.387 overall) vs Shane Baz (0.419 overall) are both mediocre arms, but Johnson's catastrophic ERA (-6.97 below Baz) suggests BAL starter is a major liability. Market correctly leans LAA heavy. Caution -1.
Key Factors
- Ryan Johnson (13.86 ERA, 0.387 overall) is true liability pitcher — market correctly rejects BAL
- Shane Baz (0.419 overall, 7.3 K/9) is merely average but vastly superior to Johnson's 13.86 ERA
- Market -142 LAA consensus is sharp money recognizing Johnson disaster
- 11.1% model-market gap is huge; markets rarely wrong on gaps this large
- OVER edge 9.9% (54.9% prob) barely actionable and secondary to pitcher mismatch conflict
Risk Factors
- Model projects BAL away favorite but pitcher profile is catastrophic liability
- Market -142 LAA is sharp consensus; -11% gap suggests model is fundamentally miscalibrated on this matchup
- BAL lineup may have quality (Ryan Mountcastle IL limits this claim) but can't overcome Johnson disaster
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 56.6%
-41.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.8 pts
Total
9.0
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →