BAL vs LAD prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.3 - BAL 4.5. LAD is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
LAD
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADBAL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
346
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.3 — BAL 4.5
Actual
LAD 1 — BAL 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF39%94 mph18% whiff
FS21%85 mph15% whiff
SL15%83 mph42% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF43%94 mph25% whiff
SL32%87 mph39% whiff
CH16%85 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.4% EV
-110
ML AWAY
+20.1% EV
+190
ML HOME
-16.2% EV
-233
F5_ML HOME
-15.6% EV
-233
F5_ML AWAY
+14.8% EV
+180
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.2% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.5 runs
38.0% win
LAD F5
3.1 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.92x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Jackson Holliday 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Adley Rutschman C7-DAY IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.4% WR (n=116)
Model shows away underdog value (+20.1% edge, 41.4% prob) but this sits in RED zone (away ML 45.4% WR, n=116) — despite edge appearance, market -232 home is sharper. Market strongly favoring LAD makes this a classic edge trap.
Key Factors
- Away underdog in RED zone (45.4% WR, n=116) — money pit historically
- LAD injuries (Smith, Hernandez, Teoscar all out) actually WORSEN the away team's chances, not improve them (LAD still -232 despite injuries)
Risk Factors
- RED zone away ML: this is the worst historical zone for ANY bet
RED ZONEAWAY ML TRAPHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 56.4%
-14.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →